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Update the Guide to Developing a Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA)


  • Employer:
  • duration:
    Nov 2023 – May 2024
  • Budget:
    25 540 EUR
nra - аяр

Project scope

Probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is part of an integrated approach to safety assessment of nuclear facilities. PSA is used to demonstrate compliance with key safety objectives and criteria, to assess fuel failure frequencies and large radioactive releases to the environment, and to determine the risk to the public.

Probabilistic safety analysis is used to support deterministic decision-making in the design and operation of the nuclear power plant. The results of the PSA are used to demonstrate design equilibrium and/or to determine the need for changes in design and operating practices, to evaluate operating limits and conditions, and to assess the significance of operating events. The probabilistic safety analysis is used to evaluate emergency instructions and severe accident manuals, as well as to evaluate maintenance, surveillance, and testing programs for SSCs (Structure, System, and Components). The PSA is also used to support the development and validation of personnel training programs.

The Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Safety Assurance Regulation 2016 sets out the regulatory requirements for conducting a probabilistic safety analysis of a NPP. Since the current regulatory guidance “Probabilistic Safety Analyses of Nuclear Power Plants” of 2010. It needs to be updated to take into account the current requirements for probabilistic safety analysis, the conclusions and new approaches that have been adopted internationally since the accident at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi NPP, the stress tests conducted at European NPPs, the development of safety standards, technologies, and programs for conducting probabilistic analysis.